Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital gave a bullish call on SBI on  15 Jan 09 at the price of 1129 when investors all around were selling it , the day the stock plunged 9% on NPA fears because of Maytas,etc. He liked  SBI since it  was a better managed public sector bank. He categorically mentioned that Maytas exposure would not alter a BUY call on SBI. He said given the risk aversion in markets at that time it was not surprising to see the stock correct. He also mentioned that  the Maytas exposure of around 500 crores was small given that SBI’s balance sheet of  lakhs of   crores. He also mentioned that it was unlikely that the entire exposure would have to be written off and it was a secured asset. As we all know now, SBI like other banks did a Corporate Debt Restructuring for Maytas and they certainly did not have to write off everything ! SBI, he also said was benefitting from thousands of crores of deposits as depositors moved money into more secure banks.

SBI has rallied from 1129 to 2850 on 13^th August 10 now, a gain of  152%  compared to the market return of 98% in the same time frame..an outperformance of over 54% !

You can  watch this video :Click here

Sandeep J. Shah- Sampriti Capital had once again accurately forecast that he would sell above 5100 levels on 17^th May 10.

The market had a brief short lived bounce from 4966 levels to 5105 the very next day (!).. before correcting all the way down to 4746 on May 25 10. A correction of 9%. He had also recommended buying into this  dip !!

View this Video.

He said on 6^th June 11 that the market upside was 5600 + levels for the Nifty and that there was a risk of the market selling off to 5000-5200. He added that the previous trading day the market had rallied to 5605 (5^th June) and sold off from there and he was worried that might indeed be the near term top. The market sold off very aggressively immediately after his call to a low of 5195 on 20th June ! It did not close below 5200 and bounced back sharply from those levels.

He highlighted the global concerns of a slowing US economy and China, that countries like Greece were seeking a second bail out, juxtaposing this with weak earnings from Indian companies in a bleak macro economic environment.

He said on 8^th July 11 when the Nifty was 5740 that he was looking to sell into this strength as he saw a risk of the market selling off below 5000.

This rally to 5700 had happened from the very bottom he had earlier forecast between 5000-5200 levels. Incidentally he had also forecast at 5600 levels the previous month that it would fall to 5000-5200 levels so he had forecast both the June top and bottom and the July top and the subsequent low in August 11.

He explained that crude which had been the trigger for this rally to 5700 had also rallied, earnings were slowing down and not just the investment related sectors were slowing down but also consumption cyclicals like auto,etc. He was also concerned that once again the market rally had been driven by ETF flows which could reverse very quickly on any bad news and the market was again expecting the Govt. to deliver on reform. Globally he said there had been a relief rally because of the Greece bail out (and therefore could be short lived). It touched his target range of 4800 - 5000 (given in earlier interviews also )and bounced back from those levels.

He was particularly worried that the RBI might raise interest rates by more than 50 bps and this is exactly what happened !

He has given accurate calls on not just stock markets but also the variables that have a strong impact on equities.

On 12^th September 11 on CNBC that the market rally from 4720 on 26 Aug 11 to 5169 on 8^th sep 11 was over. He advocated getting into cash and/or defensives and avoiding high beta stocks as a shorter term approach!

The Nifty actually sold off to 4728 levels on 4^th October 2011 a decline of 10%.Defensives like FMCG and Pharma outperformed the Nifty by declining just 5% and 3%. High beta sectors like Metals, Infra and Banks corrected 15%, 10% & 10% respectively.From a shorter term investors who heeded his advice saved themselves pain but of course if you had followed his advice to stay in cash you were even better off since almost everything declined !

Incidentally he had been warning for a sell off below Nifty level of 5000 for many months before the event actually happened in August 11. Pls see earlier videos.

He was concerned about

• sticky inflation and resultant high interest rates,

• the monsoon session of Parliament was over without any new legislative reform

• Company profitability remained under pressure

• the RBI was not yet signaling lower interest rates.

• Though commodity prices had started cooling off, the most important one , Brent crude was still close to highs.

• This explains his near term cautious stance on equities.

Sector Outperformance and Underperformance during the Period.

12^th Sep11 4^th October 11 Change

CNX Pharma 4538 4449 -2%

CNX FMCG 10094 9573 -5%

BSE Metal 12185 10286 -16%

CNX Infra 2778 2505 -10%

Bank Nifty 9550 8626 -10%

Defensives significantly outperformed the high beta sectors in line with his call.

In this video on 16^th August 2011 on CNBC he reminded viewers of his long standing target which investors should keep in mind for buying. In a later video ( to be sent soon ) when the target was achieved ,in the midst of gloom and doom, he explained his reasons for buying between 4400-4600 levels !

Throughout the bear market had been advocating cash in rallies which came to good use after the market had corrected in the following manner from a high of

5^th November 2010. to 20^th December 2011 Correction

6338 4531 28%

This was close to his target of a 30% correction for the bear market.

So what happened then.. as well know ..The market has already rallied from

20^th December 2011 to 10^th Feb 2012 Rally

4531 5428 20%

A return of 20% in the Nifty with individual stocks rallying up to 100% in just 51 days ..less than 2 months...

r a short description of this video here. What can your visitors expect to see when they click the Play button?

In this amazing video on 6^th Feb 2012,Sandeep J Shah, chief executive officer of Sampriti Capital forecasts and reminds investors of 3 market big turning points, 1 he had earlier forecasted and 2 he forecasts. .

"At 4500(when he had given a Buy call), there were no bulls on the street and now that the markets have rallied( to 5400), most of the bears seem to have disappeared," he observes.

According to him, this is a market which is driven on animal spirits which is liquidity. "These kinds of markets can actually go higher than a rational level for the market to be in, given the state of fundamentals( and turn on a dime which is what happened !),"

Shah says.

"If consumer growth in the US begins to falter, then you might see that it was just a blip and you might see (economic) data go back( fall) again," he warns. Shah sees our bureaucracy moving slowing on policy action, and that could be a risk, he said.

He believes that a sell-off below 5,000 is still conceivable, but we might not get back to that 4,400-4,600 levels. "We might get (a little higher) to 4,600 to 4,800 levels." He repeated the call to raise cash around 5400 levels twice again at 5400 levels before the UP Election result outcome and before the Budget .

The Nifty rallied from 4530 (earlier

target)on 20^th December 11 to hit a high above 5400( sell call given) levels on 22^nd Feb 12 but on 4^th June 12 hit a low of 4770

in his target range of 4600-4800.

So in this video we get a reminder of his Buy call at 4530, sell call above 5400 and target call which got hit at 4770 ! this corresponds to a Nifty move of over 32% (20% rally followed by a 12% decline !) Of course post this he even gave a Buy call at the bottom of 4770 and markets have even hit 5350 post that.. But this in another video . !