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Media Room - Sector & Stock Calls
- Sandeep J. Shah had accurately forecast that Autos would lead the next Bull Market in March 09.
- Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital had correctly forecast that Autos would lead the next bull market. He said this on 27th march 09 when the BSE Auto index was at a level of 3067. By 25th September 2010 it reached a level of 9507, an appreciation of 210% whereas the Sensex has appreciated just 100%..specific stocks he discussed like Tata Motors are up an astonishing 477 % 188 to 1070.Bullish at a time when most investors were selling auto stocks and valuations of auto stocks were trading at historical lows. He was confident that there would be a new bull market coming up and that auto would lead the way.He knew that the loss of 2300 crores that Tata Motors reported in FY09 would soon be a thing of the past and that markets are more concerned with change. And have things changed ! Tata Motors is now the darling stock of investors when it was a pariah in March 09. Auto's have singularly outperformed almost every sector in the stock market !In a separate video he had forecast that markets would rally to 4000 levels when the nifty was 2500 in march 09.
Please watch the video or read the transcript.
Transcript :
Q: Any thoughts on Tata Motors at this price?
A: I think some of the Nano hoopla will get sucked out of the price in some time and some of the concerns may come back. But at a broad level if you look at the auto sector as a whole, autos have been leaders. It was the first sector to top out before the bear market began. It would need to be one of the sectors which would be one of the frontrunners in the new bull market because they are the ones that are beaten down the most, they are the interest-rate sensitives. I would remain positive on auto stocks.
- Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital gave an excellent Buy call on United Bank on 23rd August 10 on CNBC at a price of 101. He had earlier recommended to clients around a price of 85.
The stock rallied an incredible 50% to 150 on 26th October 10 in just 2 months ! During the same period the Nifty rallied just 9% and the Bank Nifty also a modest 12%. He mentioned that he expected the ROE of the bank to double (in 2 yrs) and valuations were very reasonable.The profits of the bank were growing at a fast clip with a good dividend yield too. This is consistent with the approach of buying relatively undervalued stocks to maximize returns while managing risk.
You can watch the video below or read the transcript.
Transcript :
Where I would still find pockets of value is something like a United Bank of India, which is a PSU bank where the return on equity (RoE) is expected to go from 10-18% and when we bought it, it was about 0.8 times price to book.(now just less than 1x p/b) Sandeep J. Shah has been bullish on midcaps & smallcaps since May 09 relative to large caps !
Post the election results when the markets had rallied significantly, he was bullish on Mid caps and Small caps but not larger caps where he said they should be bought only in a correction.He said the smaller companies still represented value inspite of the market run up. He advocated buying large caps only below 4000 levels. ( In a separate video he had mentioned the correct levels to buy ). The Nifty corrected from 4200 levels to 3940 odd levels.Select mid and small caps have in fact, returned between 100 % to 400% since then even as Nifty has rised only 32% in about 15 months. The BSE Midcap index has itself rallied 60% and the BSE Small Cap index has rallied 70%!
Transcript :
Q: What should investors who are not quite invested to the extent that they would like in the market do at this point in time? Is 4,100-4,200 the kind of level where they should be buying the declines or you don't have that kind of conviction?
A: If it is an investor who is focusing only on large-caps then certainly even if he is sitting on cash, just sit tight and do nothing. On a correction below 4,000, he could began to buy selectively.Mid-caps and small-caps.on the other hand are still offering value.
- Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital gave an excellent Buy call on United Bank on 23rd August 10 on CNBC at a price of 101. He had earlier recommended to clients around a price of 85.
Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital gave a Buy call on Sun Pharma on 13 July 10 at a price of 1740 even as he had recommended to his clients earlier at a price of 1500. Sun pharma had corrected given some negative news on the stock. However he had a clear bullish view on the stock given the co's robust business model and strong management team. It was a good time to buy since earnings in fy11 were expected to rebound sharply after a decline the previous year. The company was also sitting on a mountain of cash. The stock rallied to a high of 2383 on 12 Nov 10 a return of 36% even as the Nifty gave a return of just 12% in the same period.Sun pharma outperformed even the BSE Healthcare index as it returned just 14%. This call is consistent with the approach of buying large caps on bad news or when stocks have corrected significantly as a strategy to maximize returns. He has given accurate calls on not just stock markets but also the variables that have a strong impact on equities.
You can watch these videos on www.youtube.com/user/SampritiCapitalVideo
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- Sandeep J. Shah in feb 11 correctly recommended ADAG Group stocks
- Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital correctly recommended ADAG Group stocks at a time when Investors were treating these stocks as 'pariahs'. . following the old stock market dictum that everything is good and bad at a price. Some of the ADAG were trading at values substantially lower than the price of creating such businesses from scratch or lower than the replacement cost. At times of gloom and doom, buying selectively after careful research and understanding has always worked whether it's the market overall, sectors or stocks.
The market had sold off very aggressively amidst a lot of panic and bad news to a low of 5177 on 11th February to a high of 5945 on 6th April a return of 15%. The ADAG group stocks he recommended have given a return of 30-45% double to triple the index return. Rcom from a low of 85 rallied to 113.8 a gain of 34%, Reliance Infra rallied from a low of 492 to a high of 709 up 44% and Reliance Power the other stock he recommended gained 30% from 106 to 137.5.
He has given accurate calls on not just stock markets but also the variables that have a strong impact on equities.
You can read the transcript below
Extracts of Transcript :
Q: How do you approach these beaten down ADAG group stocks?
A: From a contrarian perspective some of the stocks are already beginning to offer value.The market is getting into the stage of overdoing things. We don’t know for sure whether there are corporate governance issues. Let’s presume there are some which the market is uncomfortable with. But does it deal with every single company, what is the extent of it, what is the impact on profitability? Does it mean that investors should completely disregard all numbers? Does it mean that you need to temper what is been given there so perhaps at some price?. Reliance Infrastructure could be interesting. even Reliance Power could become interesting. You do want to look at specific companies because they are across sectors. Reliance Communications will trade at a huge discount to its replacement cost.
- Buy call on TTK returns 584% annualised !
- Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital correctly recommended TTK Prestige at 1980 on ET NOW on 16th March 11 at a Nifty level of 5511 . Of course he had a couple of months earlier recommended it to his clients at a much lower price at 1500 levels ..after the stock had reported stellar results on 19th January 11 at a Nifty level of 5711. On 7th april the stock hit a high of 2609 a gain of over 32% in just 20 days of recommending it on tv.. The Nifty hit a high of just 5609 on the same day,up a meagre 3.6%.. the buy call on TTK outperformed the market by over 28% !! TTK even outperformed both the BSE Midcap and BSE Consumer durable index also up 17% during the same period.In annualized terms return is 584%
Clients of Sampriti of course gained much more .. over 73% and an annualized 309% by just buying and holding in a span of less than 3 months .. clients who acted on our trading calls in the same stock generated more than 100% and annualized 424 %!
Between 2500 and 2600 he recommended clients to take profits. The stock has since corrected to 2250 levels where again clients have bought back.Incidentally Sandeep J. Shah had been tracking the stocks since it was just Rs.40 years back.
He recommended the stock given the strong industry growth of over 20% in consumer durables, that it was a non interest rate sensitive consumer product.. TTKs dominant position in kitchenware,strong brand equity high return ratios, great cash flows and strong earnings growth,etc.
- Buy Call On Consumer & Pharma outperforms by 40-350%
- Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital call on buying consumer and pharma stocks outperformed the Nifty by 40% to 350%... near the February market low of 5200 Nifty.
The market had sold off to a low of 5177 on 11th February and on the last trading period prior to publishing this video was at an intra day high of 5521 on 10th June a return of 7%. The BSE Consumer Durable Index rallied from 5371 to 6771 as of 10th June gaining 26%. Similarly the BSE FMCG Index rallied from 3172 to 3886 gaining 23% as of 10th June. Even the Health care (Pharma) index rallied from 5821 to 6372 gaining 10% as of 10th June 2011. Thus all these sectors out perfomed the index dramatically. The sectors he recommended outperformed the Nifty by 40% to 350% !
( In a seperate video emailed earlier he had recommended ADAG stocks at the same index level which had also outperformed and since exited in April 11, an interesting mix on defensive ,growth and deep value stocks)
- Buy Call On Consumer & Pharma outperforms by 40-350%
- Sandeep J. Shah's BUY call on HUL outperforms Nifty by 44% flat !
Sandeep J. Shah of Sampriti Capital Contrarian BUY call on HUL on 12 March 2010 is up 50% compared to a Nifty return of 6% , outperorming by 44% flat ! This call even outperformed the CNX FMCG index significantly.
This contrarian call came at a time when the market was very bearish on HUL and the stock had corrected from 300 even as the market had rallied. The market was concerned about the strong price cuts that HUL had taken but he wisely saw this as a once great company finally waking up to the challenges in the market place and not just content with reporting quarterly profits to it's parent. Though he understood the near terms risks of trying to grow market share he also realized that the company was finally looking to invest in the business and not simply try to milk profits for it's parent.
- Sandeep J. Shah's BUY call on HUL outperforms Nifty by 44% flat !
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Kalpataru Synergy, West Wing Level 2
Santa Cruz East
Mumbai, Maharashtra 400055
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